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Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N-mixture models

机译:使用已知命运和已知命运的组合估计人口统计参数   打开N-mixture模型

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摘要

1. Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to inferappropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Recentlydeveloped N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimatedemographic parameters, but a joint approach combining the strengths of bothanalytical tools has not been developed. 2. We present an integrated modelcombining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation ofdetection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. Wefirst use a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the model relativeto known values. We then provide an applied example using 4 years of wolfsurvival data consisting of relocations of radio-collared wolves within packsand counts of associated pack-mates. The model is implemented in bothmaximum-likelihood and Bayesian frameworks using a new R package kfdnm and theBUGS language. 3. The simulation results indicated that the integrated modelwas able to reliably recover parameters with no evidence of bias, and estimateswere more precise under the joint model as expected. Results from the appliedexample indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased towardsindividuals with higher apparent survival rates (including losses due tomortality and emigration) than the unmarked pack-mates, suggesting estimates ofapparent survival based on joint estimation could be more representative of theoverall population. Estimates of recruitment were similar to directobservations of pup production, and overlap of the credible intervals suggestedno clear differences in recruitment rates. 4. Our integrated model is apractical approach for increasing the amount of information gained from futureand existing radio-telemetry and other similar mark-resight datasets.
机译:1.需要准确估算人口参数才能推断出适当的生态关系并告知管理行动。最近开发的N-混合物模型使用未标记个体的计数数据到估计的地理参数,但是尚未开发出结合两种分析工具优势的联合方法。 2.我们提出了一个结合已知命运和开放N混合模型的集成模型,可以估计检测概率,募集和联合估计生存率。我们首先使用仿真研究来评估模型相对于已知值的性能。然后,我们提供一个使用4年的狼生存数据的应用示例,其中包括重装束中放射性领狼的重定位以及相关的同伴计数。该模型使用新的R包kfdnm和BUGS语言在最大似然和贝叶斯框架中实现。 3.仿真结果表明,该集成模型能够可靠地恢复参数,没有偏差的迹象,并且在联合模型下,估计更加精确。应用示例的结果表明,标记的狼样本偏向具有比未标记的pack友更高的表观存活率(包括因死亡率和移民造成的损失)的个体,这表明基于联合估计的表观存活率的估计可能更能代表总体人口。招募的估计与幼犬生产的直接观察相似,可信区间的重叠表明招募率没有明显差异。 4.我们的集成模型是一种实用的方法,可用于增加从未来和现有的无线电遥测以及其他类似标记识别数据集中获得的信息量。

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